KENYA: THE WAY FORWARD & TRIBAL MATHEMATICS
by H.N. Kibaara
AjabuAfrica.com
Quincy, MA
06/03/2008

   We all want the same things. Pretty simple, straightforward things really. First we want to be left alone so we can get busy earning a living. I am yet to find people with a more serious work ethic than Nairobians. It amazes me how someone can hold down a full time job while running a full-blown business on the side.

The business? Goods or services are provided before dawn followed by a full days work at the ‘official’ job. Second and third we all want? The occasional moment of celebration and to put our kids in a good school!

    As amazing as that Nairobi work ethic is, so too is the average Kenyans’ approach to politics. As sophisticated, as most Kenyans would like to believe they are, whom they vote for on Election Day has little to do with the candidates’ manifestos. What really counts on Election Day is who the candidates’ mommy and daddy are. I call it tribal mathematics. I will explain.

    In the just concluded general election, Kibaki carried Central by close to a hundred percent. It was the same for Raila in Nyanza. No need to point out the Kikuyu and Luo votes in that scenario. For the rest of the regions, the people went for whomever their local ‘man’ aligned themselves with. It seems this time around the Kalenjin block heeded their ‘man’ Ruto and voted for ODM en masse.

Coast went with their ‘man’ Balala while Eastern is always sympathetic to Central due to the GEMA connection. All these divisions are not always fun and games as the last general election proved. There is cause for concern.

Things are different now

            In the old Moi days things were so much simpler. It was always easy to identify the so-called ‘bad guys’. Moi ruled with a minority of his henchmen and the rest fended for themselves. The Kikuyu and Luo were traditionally in the ‘rest’ group. What’s different now is the emergence of Raila coupled with the fact that Kibaki is the incumbent.

That split the country down the middle during the last election period because of the sheer numbers and ‘herd’ mentality members of both tribes. The ensuing violence on made this tribal identity worse. To further complicate matters, the grand coalition seems to be a stepping-stone to the next general election. Raila will run in 2012. Uhuru was groomed to run by Moi, and now Kibaki is doing the grooming.

Kalonzo is the big question. Would he align himself with Uhuru or vice versa? The other intriguing piece is ODM itself. It seems ready to disintegrate at any time. One gets the feeling of a growing disconnect between Ruto and Raila. The competition for number two in ODM may turn out to be what ultimately breaks the proverbial camels back. No more clichés. Promise. All these scenarios would not produce a clear winner.

I would hate to see future elections where tensions are as high as the last one become the norm. To make the situation even bleaker it seems most politicians are already strategizing for 2012. A virtual five-year campaign period seems likely. Enough of the doomsday analysis. Now for the happy thoughts.

What’s needed now?
            For all intents and purposes 99.99 percent of us will see no personal gain if our ‘man’ takes the big office. The average Kikuyu man or woman has not personally benefited from Kibaki’s presidency by virtual of their tribal affiliation. If Raila wins the same goes for the average Luo. That is the most regrettable reality of all the violence. To think that people killed and were killed over this is disheartening.

The truth is that nothing can improve Kenya’s lot faster than the eradication of grand corruption and sound economic policy. What will benefit us all quicker than anything else are passable roads, effective tax collection and economic reforms to make it easier to do business. And for God’s sake who will take the ministries away from the MPs and let the PSs run them? Ole Ntimama is a minister again? That topic and accompanying rise in blood pressure will be for another day.

            What we need now is a massive civic education campaign. This is as important as food airlifts to hunger stricken regions. Its because of bad politics that people are starving. Most Kenyans cannot tell you what the governments job is beyond fixing roads. Most don’t even know their right to security and its connection to economic progress. Most people are also unaware of the other numerous ways they fund the government beyond their income tax. Basically, someone needs to shake the politicians and yell

“Its my shilling, tell me how you are going to spend it to make life better for me.”

“I’m paying for this service” to borrow from Kanye West’s ‘ I paid for this tape’ episode should be the new norm.

            Perhaps I have grossly under-estimated Kenya. Perhaps the 2012 election will feature vibrant town hall debates between politicians and the electorate. Perhaps every voter will peruse the candidates’ manifestos before they cast their almighty vote. Hope springs eternal and things do change dramatically. Who would have thought that Moi would step down after his (ahem, second) election defeat? Just like political ads became the staple during the last general election, so too might be said town hall debates about tariffs and other stimulating topics.