Politics, ethnicity and religion to determine fate of proposed constitution
By John Harrington Ndeta,
NAIROBI, Kenya _ MAY 20_Even as debate on the proposed constitution rages on about inexplicable insertion of two words “National Security” in clause 24(1) which talks about limitations of the fundamental human rights, it is imperative to note that the outcome of the forthcoming constitutional referendum will be informed by three things; politics, ethnicity and religion.
From where I sit, these three forces are bound to determine to a great extent the final verdict of Kenyans on the document that the committee of experts is currently distributing and conducting civic education on. Latest developments notwithstanding, the constitutional referendum seems inevitable and as long as there is an authentic draft, it matters less that few copies of an erroneous one have emerged which all Kenyans; those supporting the proposed constitution and those opposed to it all agree that it is not what the attorney General published
And so assuming that what is authentic is what will be voted for come the referendum day, it is important from the onset to note that politics in this country plays a major role almost in everything. Political inclinations and likings shape how Kenyans perceive issues of national importance. As such, Kenyans can be said to be people who feed on politics, think politics, and make decisions that are informed by politics. ‘As man thinks, so is he,’ the bible could say.
In today’s Kenya, you are either in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and its splinter groups or in the Party of National Unity (PNU) and its affiliates. What is complicated is that on the proposed constitution, all these political forces seems to have converged to says YES though with few dissidents from the two major political points-of-view rising to say NO.
Overall though, it is important to note strongly that the political will and powers that be are with the constitutions. Just like the two opposing principals joined hand to sign the National accord in total disregard of their lieutenants and Kenya stabilized. It will be hard to fight a the two if not 3 forces joint for one course, to see to it that what they signed to achieve as part of agenda four; constitutional reforms is attained before the 2012 elections.
And that is why President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga have opted to remain the generals in the YES camp. These two; being key political figures in the country, at least as of the 2007 election results, will greatly have a bearing on how their political supporters vote on the proposed constitution.
This will greatly become evident when the 30 days set aside for the campaign of the proposed constitution comes by from June 6, 2010. Just in case you have lost my string of argument, remember that Kenyans think politics, feed on politics and vote based on their political inclinations.
Secondly, ethnicity remains one big nightmare for anyone and probably anything that has to be decided by ballot in Kenya. Balkanisation of the country has been upped with each leader being confined to his/her ethnic enclaves. Before a Kenya votes on an issue, they would stop to wonder, how it will benefit my tribe/community and my tribal king-pin.
In 2007 general elections there was no single Member of Parliament elected in Central Kenya on an ODM ticket, leave alone the number of votes garnered by the ODM presidential candidate in the region in comparison to his PNU counterpart.
The same was replayed in Nyanza region with all Parliamentary seats being scooped by the ODM candidates whose presidential candidate was a native of the region.
This has not changed whatsoever. It is given that since the de-facto leader of the NO campaign against the propose Constitution comes from the Rift Valley, voters in the region and particularly those of his ethnic background will vote against the proposed constitution. But I hasten to add that the first point above, political inclination will weigh in on ethnicity and that is why some in Rift Valley will disregard their ethnicity and vote with their political conscience.
Last but not least we have the religious factor which will obviously come to the fore strongly this time round because two causes in the in the proposed constitution; clause 26 on the Right to Life and clause 170 on the Kadhi’s courts have rubbed the Christians the wrong way.
It is important to note that Kenya as a country is rated over 80 percent Christians. But in this polarized political environment, I hypothesize that the Kenyans are first and foremost political creatures, then ethnic and last but not least religious human beings. That is why we have many Kenyans with name pattern of John, Harrington but with a last name say Ndeta. John stands for the Christianisation which many Kenyans would like to identify with, Harrington for Westernisation/democratisastion (read) politics and Ndeta the ethnic tag.
Christianity is more than just a tag; it is an issue of spirituality, morality and way of life. And that is why for a Christian who thinks that the provisions of clause 26 and 170 are likely to affect his/her way of life will have it rough deciding on whether to vote YES or NO.
But let’s stop and ask ourselves, how has for instance the provision of Kadhi’s courts in the current constitution affected Christians in over 40 years that Kenya has been independent? And if Christians voted NO just because of the Kadhi’s Courts, shall we have done away with the provisions in the current constitution which we will revert to probably for a longer period of time?
And about abortion provisions, are we sure that laws will prohibit it and deter the practice? Is it not much more, a moral issue rather than a legal one? Why not try prevention rather than cure which even God himself tried in the laws of Moses and failed terribly before he introduced Jesus Christ and the law of the spirit to free people from sin? And even as Kenyans focus on the laws of the Land, it is important to remember that it is not these laws that will take them to heaven but the biblical teachings of the Lord Jesus Christ.
At this juncture, the Kenyan Christian will invoke the first two things we talked about in the preceding paragraphs which are political inclination and the ethnic factor.
And so as we go to approve of the proposed constitution or fail to do so come August 4th 2010, it is important that each and every Kenyan rethinks posterity. Some with their ethnic, religious or political eye-lenses have perceive that if the constitution passes, it will be benefitting this or that tribe, political group or religious bloc.
Today it is that tribe, that political party or that religion; tomorrow it is the other and so we are better off without political, ethnic and religious inclinations if we are to move ahead as one united, peaceful and developing country.
